Don’t be Fooled

Don’t be fooled! The human species has flung the planet into an era propelled by human behavior rather than biological evolution. They have reshaped the map into urban areas, croplands, and rangelands rather than the woodlands, rainforests, savannas, and tundras spanning the globe in the past. With 9.5 billion people expected to populate the earth by 2050, can our natural resources can keep up with this increase? It is naive to imagine there are enough life-giving resources available to sustain an infinite amount of growth.

Predicting the maximum number of species our environment can support is difficult for ecologists to calculate. How people reproduce, consume resources, and interact with the environment varies from place to place and country to country. Ecologists evaluate the carrying capacity of the earth by comparing how natural resources are consumed and how waste is managed. According to World Population Resources, “Today, our global footprint is in overshoot. It would take 1.75 Earths to sustain our current population. If current trends continue, we will reach 3 Earths by the year 2050.” No wonder Elon Musk’s utopian vision is to establish colonies in outer space.

Environmental naysayers believe that technology will change these dire projections. Other folks advocate for slowing population growth, while still, others seek rational ways of changing global culture to improve decision-making. I fall into the latter category. Mathematical biologist, Joel Cohen, writes that all three approaches are necessary, though they may not be enough. His call is to promote access to contraceptives, develop third-world economies, empower women, and educate all.

At this moment in history, the United States is heading in the opposite direction. The offshoot of urban growth is increased poverty, homelessness, pollution, and gun violence. Recent actions to eliminate abortion, ban books, and bastardize the LGBTQ community are pushing countrymen into a pit to be consumed by lions.

Is the situation hopeless as many think? I’m not sure. Population growth in the past was controlled by epidemics and wars. Today’s medical establishment controls mass extinctions. Though 6,845,412 died of COVID during the last three years, it was a drop in the bucket compared to approximately 420 million births occurring during the same period. There are four births every second of every day with more than half taking place in Asia with twenty-five million births in India and sixteen million in China alone every year.

Though the global trend of live births has decreased since 1950, it is still not low enough In 1950 the average birth rate per thousand in a year was 37. In 2050 it is expected to drop to 13 which still creates an increase when you consider how long people live. With global warming added into the formula, mass migrations out of equatorial countries and from coastal areas will continue pushing inward and north.

In prehistoric times, life expectancy at birth is estimated to have been 33 years. By 1950 it rose to 48 years globally. Global expectancy in 1922 was 72.98 years. Kaare Christens of the Southern University of Denmark predicts that a Danish woman born today will live to be over 100 years and that the first person to reach 150 is already alive. The United States is in the middle of the pack with a life expectancy for males to be 74.5 years, well under Hong Kong’s (82.9 years, Iceland’s (81.7 years), and Japan’s (81.6 years). Life expectancy for women in the U.S. is 80.2 years. In addition to hormonal differences between men and women, the discrepancy is due to the toll of gun violence, risky male behaviors, smoking, and drug usage among the male population.

A Utopian Solution

“Among all species, it is perhaps only humans who create habitats that are not fit to live in.” – Stephen Marshall

Healing the earth has neither an easy nor welcoming solution. Controlling population growth, changing morality, and doing what is necessary to protect the human species from extinction requires a worldwide consensus to do the right thing. The solutions won’t be pleasant for first-world countries used to independent thinkers controlling their own destinies. Our mega-cities are pollution centers crowded with vehicles that cause road rage. Carbon emissions continue to climb and rising sea levels affect coastal cities around the world. Many individual privileges will have to be curtailed to obtain clean water and air, an adequate food supply, universal healthcare, and education for the masses.

My thinking is that it will only happen if an organization like the United Nations is given increased power to control population, pollution, migration, resource development, and usage in a shared economic vision for the planet. This means lowering the autonomy of national governments and requiring local authorities to implement changes that evolve from a consensus of nations. Neither capitalism nor communism would be the end-all economic solution, but rather a blending of social programs and innovative technologies will be aimed at improving the quality of life for all.

Future cities will have to embrace approaches that allow for adjustment to ongoing change. I believe that a more sustainable model of urban development will need to evolve to let cities adapt more easily to continuous change across multiple parameters. Urban planners will have to pay attention to the soil, the importance of plant diversity, its role in water and nutrient cycles, and its reserve of carbon. City governments will have to account for how extreme weather brings down power lines and the way rising seas affect wildlife as well as urban dwellings. Long-range city plans already take into account the fact that climate change increases the risk of extreme wildfires, droughts, and floods. Physicians have been responding to allergy seasons that have become more intense. Fossil-fuel-reliant governments are slowly looking for more earth-friendly sources of power.

Our shared vulnerability may be the key to change. Dwindling natural resources affect everyone regardless of wealth and status. A step forward could be to promote intergenerational involvement in climate change, gun laws, and housing. The world appears different for graduating youth than it did in my day. As a result of changing demographics, they are more tolerant of sexual and racial diversity, live in apartments with smaller footprints, and are more connected to each other through technology. They don’t desire a large family and look to friends to provide emotional and physical support.

To plan for the future, our children will need to study how nature continues to adapt. They will have to get ready for the next pandemic, wean themselves off of petroleum-driven engines, and create social structures that are supportive of diverse cultural norms. It is a great challenge, but I believe our youth are up to it. My twenty-year-old grandchildren already live and talk differently than I did at their age. They are more aware of global issues, are less acquisitive, and find pleasure in nature, friendships, exercise, and things that can easily be enjoyed without a huge expense.

My utopian dream is based on hope for the next generation to do what is right. I see my role as a supportive one that provides youth with the tools they need to analyze the complex issues of their day. They will find it easier to adjust to the realities of the day than folks like me, nearing the end of my time on earth.

I look forward to your comments below.

References:

Nevozhai, D. (2021) Farewell the utopian city. The Converstation. retrieved from https://theconversation.com/farewell-the-utopian-city-to-cope-with-climate-change-we-must-learn-from-how-nature-adapts-157878

PRB website.  Gemder Disparities in Health and Mortality. retrieved/from https://www.prb.org/resources/gender-disparities-in-health-and-mortality/

World Population Counts website.  retrieved from https://www.theworldcounts.com/populations/world/births

Worldometer web site.  Coronavirus Death Toll. retrieved from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/

World Population History Website.  How Many People Can Our World Support? retrieved from POPULATION. https://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/#:~:text=Today%2C%20our%20global%20footprint%20is,to%20sustain%20our%20current%20population

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